作者：李鸿筠,刘浩强,姚廷山,胡军华,冉春,雷慧德,黄良炉,张萍
作者单位：中国农业科学院柑桔研究所,云南玉溪柑桔研究所
摘要：橘小实蝇是果蔬上的一种检疫性害虫,近年在云南发生,造成重大经济损失。搞好预测预报可以指导生产上进行适时防治。笔者在云南省元江县和华宁县柑橘园悬挂诱捕器,诱捕橘小实蝇,进行系统监测。结果表明,两县发生基本一致,高峰期均在6—7月,元江县比华宁县略晚10 d,但发生量明显高于华宁县。以2003—2008年元江县和华宁县橘小实蝇发生的田间系统监测资料为依据,以温度、湿度、雨量、光照等气象资料作为预测因子,采用简单逐步回归和多因子互作回归分别进行拟合,建立了不同的发生量和发生期预测预报模型。经检验,结果表明2种模型均能较为准确地预测出元江县和华宁县橘小实蝇的发生量和发生高峰期,以多因子互作组建的模型比简单逐步回归的结果更可靠。
关键词：橘小实蝇,发生量,发生期,预测,模型
Title: Study on prediction mathematical model of occurrence quantity and period for oriental fruit fly (Bactrocera dorsalis)
Authors: LI Hong-jun,LIU Hao-qiang,YAO Ting-shan,HU Jun-hua,RAN Chun,LEI Hui-de,HUANG Liang-lu,ZHANG Ping
Abstract: Oriental fruit fly(Bactrocera dorsalis) is an important quarantine pest for fruits and vegetables.It occurred in Yun-nan in recent years,causing significant economic losses.Hanging traps in citrus orchards located in Yuanjiang and Huaning counties,Yunnan Province for trapping oriental fruit fly and monitoring systematically has been done for many years.The re-sults showed that the rampaging period was in June and July but a little bit earlier(around 10 d) in Huaning county and occurrence quantity was much severer in Yuanjiang county.Based on the monitoring data collected from 2003 to 2008 in-cluding trapped pests,and weather factors,temperature,humidity,precipitation,illumination etc.2 prediction models were established using the method of simple regression and multifactorial stepwise regression respectively.These 2 models could accurately predict the occurrence quantity and period of oriental fruit fly.Furthermore,the occurrence quantity and period of oriental fruit fly were closely related to the interaction among multi-factors.The test results indicated that the model estab-lished by multifactorial stepwise regression was more credible than that by simple regression.
文献注录：李鸿筠,刘浩强,姚廷山,胡军华,冉春,雷慧德,黄良炉,张萍. 橘小实蝇发生期及发生量预测模型研究 [J]. 果树学报. 2010, 02: 275-280.
基金: 科技部科研院所社会公益研究专项(2005DIA4J053);市重大科技专项(CSTC,2007AA1024)
报/刊名：《果树学报》，发表于2010 / 第 02 期。
文献类型： [J] （文献级别：核心刊物）
页码：第 275-280 页 / 共6 页